If you've been watching the Baja California Sur real estate market this year, Q2 2025 gave us a lot to think about. Not all fireworks and record-breaking headlines — but a market that's maturing, sorting itself out, and still offering some genuinely compelling opportunities if you know where to look. Let's break down what the data from the MLS (covering all agencies from Los Cabos to La Paz) is actually telling us.
After a jaw-dropping Q1 2025 — which saw $559 million in contracts, making it the second-highest quarter historically — Q2 was always going to feel like a bit of a cooldown. And it was. In the second quarter of 2025, sales declined, with Q2 recording $362 million USD in closed volume. But here's the thing: calling that a "bad" quarter completely misses the context. The Cabo market has been running so hot for so long that even a softer quarter by its own standards is still a very active market by almost anyone else's.
The first six months of 2025 combined for 1,038 properties sold, totaling $878 million USD in closed volume — a 24% increase over the same period in 2024. That's not a market in trouble. That's a market taking a breath after sprinting.
If there's one submarket that keeps showing up in the data as a standout, it's San José del Cabo. While Cabo San Lucas gets most of the tourist attention and Instagram posts, San José has been quietly building a case as the smarter long-term play for investors and lifestyle buyers alike.
In San José del Cabo, condo sales are up 37%, and the average price has increased by 10% to $729,096. That's meaningful growth. And San José del Cabo recorded an average home sale price of approximately $1.38 million USD — which sounds steep until you compare it to what similar lifestyle markets in the U.S. are charging right now.
San José offers lower entry points than Cabo San Lucas with superior infrastructure planning, and properties here appeal to both rental investors serving the growing remote work market and long-term residents seeking livability over pure resort amenities. That's a pretty compelling pitch, honestly.
For buyers specifically looking at San José del Cabo homes for sale, the current window is interesting. San José del Cabo has steadied price-wise and offers a good entry point, supported by upcoming infrastructure improvements. You're not buying at the absolute bottom — those days are gone — but you're also not chasing a peak.
Property type matters a lot right now when it comes to Cabo real estate trends. Not everything is performing the same way.
The land slowdown is worth understanding. It's not that people have stopped wanting to build — it's more that buyers have become more selective and cost-conscious. Many buyers who previously purchased land are now moving forward with construction projects, largely due to a stronger USD-to-MXN exchange rate stabilizing building costs. So the pipeline is still active, just at a different stage.
On the condo side, there's a nuance worth flagging for anyone eyeing San José del Cabo new construction units. As more pre-construction projects from the 2021–2022 boom reach completion and enter the resale market, there's increasing competition between new completed resale units and older completed inventory, with continued price sensitivity expected in this segment. In plain terms: if you're selling a condo right now, pricing it right isn't optional — it's everything.
Let's be honest — the luxury segment of the Los Cabos real estate investments story has its own gravity. Despite a rise in active listings, demand in the luxury tier continues to outpace supply, leading to competitive bidding especially in high-demand enclaves like Palmilla, Querencia, and Cabo del Sol.
Average home prices have now reached $1.6 million USD, while condos average $614,506 USD — yet even with this upward momentum, Cabo remains a relative value compared to markets like Southern California, Miami, or Hawaii. That comparison point keeps coming up in conversations with buyers, and it's legitimate. You're getting a lot of lifestyle per dollar here compared to stateside alternatives.
As reported by Forbes Global Properties, over 80% of buyers in this market are from the U.S., with significant growth from Canada and Europe. That international demand base is one of the reasons the market has stayed resilient through various economic headwinds.
One thing that doesn't always make the headlines but absolutely belongs in any honest conversation about San José del Cabo real estate developments is infrastructure investment. Significant state investments are underway including a new IMSS hospital, an underpass, a desalination plant, and new roads — all enhancing livability and investment appeal.
This stuff matters. Real estate value doesn't just follow beaches and golf courses — it follows schools, hospitals, water security, and road access. San José is getting meaningful upgrades on all those fronts, and that's going to support prices over the medium and long term regardless of what the broader market does quarter to quarter.
So where does all this leave you if you're actively tracking San José del Cabo property news and thinking about making a move? A few honest takeaways:
The Baja California Sur real estate market heading into the second half of 2025 isn't the frenzy of 2022, and it's not a buyer's free-for-all either. It's a market where being informed — knowing the submarkets, understanding what the MLS data actually says, and working with people who know this region — makes a real difference in outcomes. San José del Cabo, in particular, keeps giving buyers and investors reasons to pay attention.