If you've been watching Todos Santos real estate news over the past few years, you already know the story has been a wild ride. From a sleepy, artsy Pueblo Mágico to one of the hottest coastal markets in all of Baja California Sur — the transformation happened almost overnight. But markets that rise fast don't always stay up there, and the data coming out of this region is telling a pretty honest story right now.
So let's break it down. Not with hype, but with actual numbers.
According to MLS data for the Todos Santos region, COVID and the ability to work remotely created a significant surge in housing demand, with sales peaking at 140 homes sold in 2021 — but by 2024 that number had fallen to 71, and the market remains soft heading into 2025.
Think about what that means in real terms. At the peak, you had buyers flying in from California, Texas, Canada — people who suddenly realized they could do their jobs from a laptop on a Pacific-facing terrace just as easily as from a cubicle in Denver. Todos Santos became a kind of open secret that got a little too public, a little too fast.
Home prices in the Todos Santos region more than tripled from an average of $341,860 in 2019 to $1,046,691 in 2022, then fell roughly 21% to around $821,324 through the first half of 2024. That's still a meaningful appreciation over the five-year window — but sellers who bought in 2022 at peak prices and are trying to exit now? They're in a tougher spot than they expected.
Reports indicate that homes in the area are sitting on the market anywhere from 200 to 300 days before selling. That's a far cry from the frenzy of 2021 when properties were moving fast with multiple offers. If you're a buyer keeping an eye on Todos Santos property market trends, that kind of extended days-on-market can actually work in your favor — it's negotiating room.
Here's where things get really interesting — and frankly, a bit alarming for some investors. The condo market, centered mostly around Cerritos Beach, has seen a correction that makes the single-family home data look mild by comparison.
Condo sales in the area peaked at 88 units sold in 2022, dropping to 41 in 2023 and just 35 in 2024. And median condo values fell from a peak of $887,500 in 2023 all the way down to $334,000 in 2024. That's not a soft landing. That's a serious repricing event.
Why did it happen? It's likely due to market saturation — developers overbuilt while anticipating that near-$900,000 valuations would hold, continuing to launch new projects in an area that lacks a water distribution system, sewage infrastructure, and proper road access. When multiple projects hit the market at the same time and buyers have more choices, prices adjust. Fast.
This is a topic that deserves its own conversation if you're seriously looking at Todos Santos real estate investments or coastal property developments in Todos Santos. A lot of what's being marketed as available condo inventory in Cerritos isn't even built yet.
Many of the condo projects currently being marketed exist only as renderings — not finished buildings. Titles for individual units can take years to obtain and can only be applied for once construction is at least 80% complete. That means a buyer's deposit and progress payments are genuinely at risk if the project stalls due to slow sales or falling values.
And with values dropping, there's real risk that developers won't sell enough units to complete their projects — a scenario that's reportedly not uncommon in Cerritos. That's not fear-mongering; that's just the math of construction financing.
Anyone tracking Pescadero real estate developments or Baja California Sur real estate more broadly needs to understand one thing: the infrastructure hasn't kept up with the growth. Not even close.
The region is dealing with explosive growth combined with a lack of adequate water supply, electrical power, and wastewater treatment — and there's currently no plan or municipal funding in place to build the infrastructure needed to support either current or future development.
On the water side, the situation in Cerritos specifically is stark. There is no water distribution system in Cerritos Beach — all water must be trucked in, at costs reportedly running about 15 times what a standard water connection would cost. That's not a temporary inconvenience. That's a fundamental cost of living that any buyer needs to factor into their budget from day one.
Residents are also dealing with over-extraction of the local aquifers and summer power outages occurring multiple days per week — and potential buyers should take that seriously too.
And then there's the bigger zoning picture. The municipality in La Paz is currently pushing to increase the region's population from roughly 15,000 people to 150,000 — which would require replacing existing zoning rules that currently cap growth at around 25,000 residents. If that change goes through, the character of the area — and the pressure on already-strained resources — would shift dramatically.
Even with all the softening in home and condo sales, one data point stands out in the broader picture of Pescadero real estate market updates and the surrounding region. More lots have been sold in the Todos Santos region over the past six years than in any other area across Baja California Sur.
That tells you something. Buyers who are hesitant about existing inventory — or who want to build to their own specs — are still betting on this coastline long-term. Land banking in areas like Pescadero and the Pacific corridor remains active even as resale volume cools.
If you're a buyer looking at Pescadero Baja Sur homes for sale or considering a move into the Todos Santos market, there's actually a decent argument that this is a more rational time to buy than 2021 or 2022 ever was. Prices have corrected, homes are sitting longer, and sellers are more motivated. You've got negotiating power you simply didn't have three years ago.
But — and this is a big but — you have to do your due diligence in ways that wouldn't be as critical in a more regulated market. Getting an independent local contractor to inspect any home or condo before purchase is strongly advised, since building inspectors from the municipality in La Paz don't consistently verify construction quality or code compliance on-site.
For sellers, patience is the name of the game right now. With homes averaging several months on market, pricing realistically from the start is far more effective than starting high and chasing the market down with reductions.
The Todos Santos and Cerritos region is genuinely compelling — the natural beauty, the culture, the Pacific surf breaks, the food scene. None of that has changed. But the real estate market has matured out of its post-COVID sugar rush, and anyone making decisions here in 2025 needs eyes-open clarity about what the data actually shows.
It's not a market in freefall. It's a market finding its floor. And for the right buyer, with the right expectations and a clear understanding of the infrastructure realities on the ground, that can still add up to a very smart move in one of Baja's most storied coastal destinations.