Let's be honest — most real estate markets have had a rough go of it lately. Rising interest rates, nervous buyers, inventory pile-ups. So when a market posts numbers like Los Cabos just did for the first half of 2025, it genuinely stops you in your tracks.
The first half of 2025 has been remarkable for the Los Cabos residential real estate market, with $878 million in closed volume — a 24% increase year-over-year compared to 2024. That's not a modest bump. That's a market firing on all cylinders while much of the rest of the continent was hitting the brakes.
So what's actually driving this? And more importantly, if you're watching the Cabo San Lucas property market — whether as a buyer, seller, or investor — what do these numbers mean for you?
Here's the stat that really tells the story. Luxury properties over $1 million made up 77% of total dollar volume in Q1. That means nearly eight out of every ten dollars spent on Cabo real estate in the first quarter went toward a luxury purchase. That's not a trend — that's a structural shift in who's buying and what they're buying.
Average sale prices came in at $727,000 across all homes, $1.32 million for luxury homes specifically, and $792,000 for condos. Those condo numbers are particularly interesting — they reflect the fact that even the "entry-level" of this market skews heavily toward high-end resort-style units.
And then there's the ultra-premium end. Branded luxury communities such as Maravilla, Cove Club, Chileno Bay, and El Dorado saw sales exceeding $20 million in some cases. We're talking about a market that's now legitimately in the same conversation as Aspen and the Hamptons — and the data backs that up.
Not all of Los Cabos is performing the same way, and that's worth understanding before you start shopping.
The $2M–$5M price band remains extremely active — Cabo's Pacific Corridor saw average home prices of $2.25 million, while San José del Cabo recorded an average of $1.38 million. The Corridor is where the real premium real estate action is, and those prices reflect the scarcity of true beachfront and ocean-view properties there.
Despite a rise in active listings overall, demand in the luxury tier continues to outpace supply, leading to competitive bidding — especially in high-demand enclaves like Palmilla, Querencia, and Cabo del Sol. If you've been eyeing a property in one of those communities, waiting for prices to dip probably isn't the strategy you want to bank on.
It's also worth noting that a huge portion of high-end activity doesn't even show up in the MLS. Some of the most prestigious ultra-high-end luxury communities — including Maravilla, Montage, Cove Club, Four Seasons, El Dorado, and Chileno Bay — continue to experience exceptionally strong activity which is not tracked on the MLS. So the headline numbers? They're actually an undercount.
This isn't just a story about wealthy retirees buying vacation homes anymore (though that's still very much happening). The buyer pool has genuinely diversified.
Affluent international buyers continue to view Los Cabos as a hotspot for lifestyle and ROI, but also as a key strategy to protect and preserve wealth across generations. Meanwhile, the entry level of the market is also active as people pursue retirement and remote work destinations that offer climate, culture, cost-efficiency, and livability.
Remote workers are a real and growing part of this equation. Think about it — if you can work from anywhere, why wouldn't you trade a gray winter in Chicago or Toronto for a home office with Pacific Ocean views? Canadian arrivals to Los Cabos jumped 20% year-over-year, reaching approximately 240,000 visitors in 2025, with Toronto emerging as the fastest-growing gateway at 37% growth. Those aren't all tourists. A lot of them are scouting properties.
And the tourism numbers only reinforce the investment case. Los Cabos is on track to receive 4.13 million visitors in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of record-breaking tourism — which directly supports the short-term rental income thesis for anyone buying a property here with an eye toward returns.
Now, to be fair, it's not all one-directional momentum. Q2 2025 saw a slight moderation in pending sales — down 28% from Q1 — though it was still the third-best Q2 on record. Active listings saw a 277% increase year-over-year, while new listings rose by 127%, suggesting growing seller confidence.
More inventory is a good thing for buyers. But here's the catch — while active inventory of homes and condos in Los Cabos has grown from around 1,100 listings a year ago to more than 2,500 today, most high-end luxury communities on the corridor have limited inventory and haven't seen a slowdown. So "more inventory" is largely a story about the broader market, not the ultra-prime stuff. If you're shopping for a beachfront home in Palmilla or a branded residence at Chileno Bay, the supply situation is still very tight.
Over the past 12 to 18 months, macroeconomic shifts in the U.S. — including stock market volatility and rising interest rates — have led to an increase in data-driven buyers who are comparing sold comps, evaluating price-per-square-foot data, and bypassing overpriced listings that aren't move-in ready. In other words, the days of anyone paying anything for anything in Cabo are gone. Buyers are smarter now. That's actually healthy.
One of the more interesting developments on the Cabo San Lucas real estate developments front is the rise of fractional ownership. Fractional ownership models are rising, with platforms like Pacaso expanding access to multi-million dollar homes. This opens the door for buyers who want a piece of a $5 million beachfront villa without writing a $5 million check — and the average annual stay in Los Cabos homes through co-ownership platforms is 27 days per owner, with 90% occupancy — far above what most individually owned vacation homes achieve.
On the infrastructure side, the long-term picture for Los Cabos property trends looks strong. Ongoing infrastructure improvements, such as airport expansion and new roads, are enhancing accessibility and long-term value. Better access means more buyers, more tourism, and better rental demand. It's a compounding effect that savvy investors tend to get ahead of, not react to.
Here's the honest take: the Cabo San Lucas real estate market in 2025 is not for impulse buyers, and it's not a "set it and forget it" kind of investment. The buyers winning right now are the ones who've done their homework, know their budget cold, and have a clear sense of what they want — whether that's a rental income machine, a family legacy property, or a full-time lifestyle upgrade.
The Cabo real estate news coming out of H1 2025 points to a market that's maturing without cooling. Luxury homes in Cabo San Lucas are increasingly being treated less like vacation indulgences and more like serious portfolio assets — and the transaction volumes prove buyers are putting real money behind that idea.
If you've been on the fence, the data suggests the fundamentals here are real, not hype. But as with any market — especially one this competitive — who you work with matters as much as what you buy.